Sunderland vs Fulham Prediction & Preview
PL · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PL
Sunderland vs Fulham
Model pick: Sunderland (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.12
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sunderland | Fulham |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #12 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Sunderland shown at home, Fulham shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sunderland — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Fulham — last 5
WLDWL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sunderland (home) | Fulham (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 48% |
PL — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.83
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%
Use these PL averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sunderland or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Fulham or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 33% |
| Fulham clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sunderland is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Sunderland are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Sunderland vs Fulham — FAQ
Who will win Sunderland vs Fulham?
Our statistical model makes Sunderland the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Sunderland 38%, draw 29%, Fulham 33%.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Fulham?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sunderland vs Fulham?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Sunderland and 1.12 for Fulham — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sunderland vs Fulham?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Sunderland or draw is 65%.