Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & Preview
Virsliga (Latvia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VIRSLIGA (LATVIA)
Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils
Model pick: BFC Daugavpils (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.5
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Super Nova | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|
| League position | #6 (27 pts) | #4 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 17% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 0.6 |
*Super Nova shown at home, BFC Daugavpils shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Super Nova — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 19% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
BFC Daugavpils — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Super Nova (home) | BFC Daugavpils (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-8 in 12 (1.2 / 2.0 goals per game) | 2-4-5 in 11 (1.5 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 19% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 52% |
Virsliga (Latvia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.86
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Virsliga (Latvia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.23 vs 1.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Super Nova or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — BFC Daugavpils or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Super Nova clean sheet | 22% |
| BFC Daugavpils clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
BFC Daugavpils is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, BFC Daugavpils edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils — FAQ
Who will win Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our statistical model makes BFC Daugavpils the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Super Nova 32%, draw 27%, BFC Daugavpils 42%.
Will both teams score in Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?
Expected goals are 1.23 for Super Nova and 1.5 for BFC Daugavpils — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Super Nova or draw is 57%.