Super Nova vs Tukums Prediction & Preview
Virsliga (Latvia) · Sep 10, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VIRSLIGA (LATVIA)
Super Nova vs Tukums
Model pick: Super Nova (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Super Nova | Tukums |
|---|
| League position | #7 (29 pts) | #9 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 15% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 2.2 |
*Super Nova shown at home, Tukums shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Super Nova — last 5
WLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Tukums — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Super Nova (home) | Tukums (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-8 in 13 (1.1 / 1.8 goals per game) | 0-4-10 in 14 (1.1 / 2.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 64% |
Virsliga (Latvia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.86
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Virsliga (Latvia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.52 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Super Nova or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Tukums or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Super Nova clean sheet | 29% |
| Tukums clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Super Nova is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Super Nova are backed at home, where they average 0.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Super Nova vs Tukums — FAQ
Who will win Super Nova vs Tukums?
Our statistical model makes Super Nova the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Super Nova 42%, draw 26%, Tukums 32%.
Will both teams score in Super Nova vs Tukums?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Super Nova vs Tukums?
Expected goals are 1.52 for Super Nova and 1.25 for Tukums — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Super Nova vs Tukums?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Super Nova or draw is 69%.