Supra du Quebec vs Forge Prediction & Preview
Championship (Canada) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (CANADA)
Supra du Quebec vs Forge
Model pick: Supra du Quebec (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.7 – 0.99
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Supra du Quebec | Forge |
|---|
| League position | #6 (19 pts) | #1 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 22% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Supra du Quebec shown at home, Forge shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Supra du Quebec — last 5
DDLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Forge — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 8% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Supra du Quebec (home) | Forge (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-5 in 9 (1.1 / 1.7 goals per game) | 6-1-2 in 9 (1.8 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 8% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 67% |
| Top scorer | – | Brian Wright (1) |
Championship (Canada) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Championship (Canada) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.7 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (9%) |
| Double chance — Supra du Quebec or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Forge or draw (X2) | 27% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Supra du Quebec clean sheet | 37% |
| Forge clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Supra du Quebec is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Supra du Quebec are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Supra du Quebec vs Forge — FAQ
Who will win Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Our statistical model makes Supra du Quebec the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Supra du Quebec 68%, draw 18%, Forge 14%.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
Expected goals are 2.7 for Supra du Quebec and 0.99 for Forge — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Supra du Quebec vs Forge?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (9%). Double chance for Supra du Quebec or draw is 89%.