Surkhon vs AGMK Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 25, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Surkhon vs AGMK
Model pick: AGMK (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Surkhon | AGMK |
|---|
| League position | #14 (18 pts) | #5 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 22% | 56% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Surkhon shown at home, AGMK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Surkhon — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
AGMK — last 5
WLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Surkhon (home) | AGMK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-5 in 9 (0.9 / 1.4 goals per game) | 5-1-3 in 9 (1.8 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 46% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Surkhon or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — AGMK or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Surkhon clean sheet | 29% |
| AGMK clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
AGMK is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, AGMK edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Surkhon vs AGMK — FAQ
Who will win Surkhon vs AGMK?
Our statistical model makes AGMK the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Surkhon 31%, draw 29%, AGMK 40%.
Will both teams score in Surkhon vs AGMK?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Surkhon vs AGMK?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Surkhon and 1.25 for AGMK — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Surkhon vs AGMK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Surkhon or draw is 59%.