Surkhon vs Navbahor Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Surkhon vs Navbahor
Model pick: Navbahor (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Surkhon | Navbahor |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #5 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Surkhon shown at home, Navbahor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Surkhon — last 5
DWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Navbahor — last 5
DDLDD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Surkhon (home) | Navbahor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-3 in 7 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 4-2-2 in 8 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 49% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Surkhon or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Navbahor or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Surkhon clean sheet | 32% |
| Navbahor clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Navbahor is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Navbahor edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Surkhon vs Navbahor — FAQ
Who will win Surkhon vs Navbahor?
Our statistical model makes Navbahor the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Surkhon 31%, draw 30%, Navbahor 38%.
Will both teams score in Surkhon vs Navbahor?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Surkhon vs Navbahor?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Surkhon and 1.13 for Navbahor — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Surkhon vs Navbahor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Surkhon or draw is 61%.