Surkhon vs Sogdiana Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 13, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Surkhon vs Sogdiana
Model pick: Surkhon (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.01
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Surkhon | Sogdiana |
|---|
| League position | #13 (18 pts) | #12 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Surkhon shown at home, Sogdiana shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Surkhon — last 5
WLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Sogdiana — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Surkhon (home) | Sogdiana (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-4 in 8 (0.9 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 48% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Surkhon or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Sogdiana or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Surkhon clean sheet | 36% |
| Sogdiana clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Surkhon is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Surkhon are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Surkhon vs Sogdiana — FAQ
Who will win Surkhon vs Sogdiana?
Our statistical model makes Surkhon the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Surkhon 38%, draw 30%, Sogdiana 32%.
Will both teams score in Surkhon vs Sogdiana?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Surkhon vs Sogdiana?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Surkhon and 1.01 for Sogdiana — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Surkhon vs Sogdiana?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Surkhon or draw is 68%.