Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Jul 30, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk
Model pick: ML Vitebsk (89%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.06 – 2.68
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 22%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sutjeska | ML Vitebsk |
|---|
| League position | #5 (0 pts) | #2 (31 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 2.6 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 88% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 2.25 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Sutjeska shown at home, ML Vitebsk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sutjeska — last 5
LLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
ML Vitebsk — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 59% of the time; 29% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sutjeska (home) | ML Vitebsk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 7-1-0 in 8 (2.6 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 59% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 29% |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.06 vs 2.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (23%) |
| Double chance — Sutjeska or draw (1X) | 8% |
| Double chance — ML Vitebsk or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Sutjeska clean sheet | 7% |
| ML Vitebsk clean sheet | 94% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ML Vitebsk is the model's most likely outcome at
89%. Despite playing away, ML Vitebsk edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk — FAQ
Who will win Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk?
Our statistical model makes ML Vitebsk the most likely result at 89%. Full probabilities: Sutjeska 1%, draw 10%, ML Vitebsk 89%.
Will both teams score in Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk?
The model gives a 22% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk?
Expected goals are 0.06 for Sutjeska and 2.68 for ML Vitebsk — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sutjeska vs ML Vitebsk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (23%). Double chance for Sutjeska or draw is 8%.