Suwon vs Busan IPark Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Suwon vs Busan IPark
Model pick: Suwon (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.9 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Suwon | Busan IPark |
|---|
| League position | #3 (40 pts) | #5 (38 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 0.9 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 45% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 |
*Suwon shown at home, Busan IPark shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Suwon — last 5
WLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Busan IPark — last 5
LLDDD
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Suwon (home) | Busan IPark (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-0 in 9 (2.2 / 0.9 goals per game) | 5-2-4 in 11 (1.7 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 40% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.9 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Suwon or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Busan IPark or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Suwon clean sheet | 40% |
| Busan IPark clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Suwon is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Suwon are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Suwon vs Busan IPark — FAQ
Who will win Suwon vs Busan IPark?
Our statistical model makes Suwon the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Suwon 49%, draw 25%, Busan IPark 26%.
Will both teams score in Suwon vs Busan IPark?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Suwon vs Busan IPark?
Expected goals are 1.9 for Suwon and 0.91 for Busan IPark — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Suwon vs Busan IPark?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for Suwon or draw is 82%.