Suwon vs Gimhae City Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Suwon vs Gimhae City
Model pick: Suwon (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.31 – 0.68
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Suwon | Gimhae City |
|---|
| League position | #4 (37 pts) | #17 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.0 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Suwon shown at home, Gimhae City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Suwon — last 5
DWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Gimhae City — last 5
DLDLD
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Suwon (home) | Gimhae City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-0 in 8 (2.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-4-5 in 11 (0.9 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 45% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.31 vs 0.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Suwon or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Gimhae City or draw (X2) | 26% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Suwon clean sheet | 51% |
| Gimhae City clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Suwon is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Suwon are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Suwon vs Gimhae City — FAQ
Who will win Suwon vs Gimhae City?
Our statistical model makes Suwon the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Suwon 65%, draw 20%, Gimhae City 15%.
Will both teams score in Suwon vs Gimhae City?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Suwon vs Gimhae City?
Expected goals are 2.31 for Suwon and 0.68 for Gimhae City — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Suwon vs Gimhae City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Suwon or draw is 91%.