Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City
Model pick: Suzhou Dongwu (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.58 – 0.53
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Suzhou Dongwu | Nanjing City |
|---|
| League position | #14 (19 pts) | #13 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 27% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Suzhou Dongwu shown at home, Nanjing City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Suzhou Dongwu — last 5
WWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 60% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Nanjing City — last 5
DDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Suzhou Dongwu (home) | Nanjing City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-5 in 11 (0.8 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-3-6 in 10 (0.7 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 60% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.58 vs 0.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Suzhou Dongwu or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Nanjing City or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Suzhou Dongwu clean sheet | 59% |
| Nanjing City clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Suzhou Dongwu is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Suzhou Dongwu are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City — FAQ
Who will win Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City?
Our statistical model makes Suzhou Dongwu the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Suzhou Dongwu 59%, draw 26%, Nanjing City 14%.
Will both teams score in Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City?
Expected goals are 1.58 for Suzhou Dongwu and 0.53 for Nanjing City — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Suzhou Dongwu vs Nanjing City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Suzhou Dongwu or draw is 88%.