Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz
Model pick: Sturm Graz (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.99
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Swarovski Tirol | Sturm Graz |
|---|
| League position | #1 (0 pts) | #11 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 3.4 / 0.4 |
*Swarovski Tirol shown at home, Sturm Graz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Swarovski Tirol — last 5
LDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Sturm Graz — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Swarovski Tirol (home) | Sturm Graz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Top scorer | – | Seedy Jatta (1) |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 1.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Swarovski Tirol or draw (1X) | 39% |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Swarovski Tirol clean sheet | 14% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sturm Graz is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, Sturm Graz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz — FAQ
Who will win Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model makes Sturm Graz the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Swarovski Tirol 23%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz 52%.
Will both teams score in Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Swarovski Tirol and 1.99 for Sturm Graz — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (10%). Double chance for Swarovski Tirol or draw is 39%.