Swinoujscie vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Swinoujscie vs Stargard Szczeciński
Model pick: Swinoujscie (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Swinoujscie | Stargard Szczeciński |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
*Swinoujscie shown at home, Stargard Szczeciński shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Swinoujscie — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Stargard Szczeciński — last 5
DLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Swinoujscie (home) | Stargard Szczeciński (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.5 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Swinoujscie or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Stargard Szczeciński or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Swinoujscie clean sheet | 36% |
| Stargard Szczeciński clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Swinoujscie is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Swinoujscie are backed at home, where they average 2.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Swinoujscie vs Stargard Szczeciński — FAQ
Who will win Swinoujscie vs Stargard Szczeciński?
Our statistical model makes Swinoujscie the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Swinoujscie 46%, draw 27%, Stargard Szczeciński 27%.
Will both teams score in Swinoujscie vs Stargard Szczeciński?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Swinoujscie vs Stargard Szczeciński?
Expected goals are 1.5 for Swinoujscie and 1.03 for Stargard Szczeciński — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Swinoujscie vs Stargard Szczeciński?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Swinoujscie or draw is 74%.