Swinoujscie vs Wrzesnia Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Swinoujscie vs Wrzesnia
Model pick: Wrzesnia (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.12 – 0.98
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 23%
Both teams score: 25%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Swinoujscie | Wrzesnia |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Swinoujscie shown at home, Wrzesnia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Swinoujscie — last 5
LLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Wrzesnia — last 5
WLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Swinoujscie (home) | Wrzesnia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.12 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (33%) |
| Double chance — Swinoujscie or draw (1X) | 42% |
| Double chance — Wrzesnia or draw (X2) | 96% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 63% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Swinoujscie clean sheet | 38% |
| Wrzesnia clean sheet | 89% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Wrzesnia is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Despite playing away, Wrzesnia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (77% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Swinoujscie vs Wrzesnia — FAQ
Who will win Swinoujscie vs Wrzesnia?
Our statistical model makes Wrzesnia the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Swinoujscie 6%, draw 38%, Wrzesnia 56%.
Will both teams score in Swinoujscie vs Wrzesnia?
The model gives a 25% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Swinoujscie vs Wrzesnia?
Expected goals are 0.12 for Swinoujscie and 0.98 for Wrzesnia — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Swinoujscie vs Wrzesnia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (33%). Double chance for Swinoujscie or draw is 42%.