Swit vs Warta Sieradz Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Swit vs Warta Sieradz
Model pick: Swit (79%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.49 – 0.38
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Swit | Warta Sieradz |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Swit shown at home, Warta Sieradz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Swit — last 5
DWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Warta Sieradz — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Swit (home) | Warta Sieradz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 63%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.49 vs 0.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Swit or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — Warta Sieradz or draw (X2) | 16% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Swit clean sheet | 68% |
| Warta Sieradz clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Swit is the model's most likely outcome at
79%. Swit are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Swit vs Warta Sieradz — FAQ
Who will win Swit vs Warta Sieradz?
Our statistical model makes Swit the most likely result at 79%. Full probabilities: Swit 79%, draw 16%, Warta Sieradz 6%.
Will both teams score in Swit vs Warta Sieradz?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Swit vs Warta Sieradz?
Expected goals are 2.49 for Swit and 0.38 for Warta Sieradz — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Swit vs Warta Sieradz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (18%). Double chance for Swit or draw is 96%.