Tacuary vs Deportivo Santaní Prediction & Preview
Division Intermedia (Paraguay) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION INTERMEDIA (PARAGUAY)
Tacuary vs Deportivo Santaní
Model pick: Deportivo Santaní (78%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.81 – 3.17
Total goals: 4.0
Over 2.5: 66%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tacuary | Deportivo Santaní |
|---|
| League position | #14 (19 pts) | #3 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.9 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 20% | 60% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 2.4 / 2.0 |
*Tacuary shown at home, Deportivo Santaní shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tacuary — last 5
WLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Santaní — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tacuary (home) | Deportivo Santaní (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-4-4 in 10 (1.1 / 1.3 goals per game) | 6-2-2 in 10 (1.9 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 58% |
Division Intermedia (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 37%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 59%
Use these Division Intermedia (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.81 vs 3.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (10%) |
| Double chance — Tacuary or draw (1X) | 17% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Santaní or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 91% / 9% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Tacuary clean sheet | 4% |
| Deportivo Santaní clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Santaní is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. Despite playing away, Deportivo Santaní edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.0, this shapes as an open game (66% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tacuary vs Deportivo Santaní — FAQ
Who will win Tacuary vs Deportivo Santaní?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Santaní the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: Tacuary 9%, draw 14%, Deportivo Santaní 78%.
Will both teams score in Tacuary vs Deportivo Santaní?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tacuary vs Deportivo Santaní?
Expected goals are 0.81 for Tacuary and 3.17 for Deportivo Santaní — about 4.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tacuary vs Deportivo Santaní?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (10%). Double chance for Tacuary or draw is 17%.