Tammeka vs Kuressaare Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Tammeka vs Kuressaare
Model pick: Tammeka (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tammeka | Kuressaare |
|---|
| League position | #5 (29 pts) | #9 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 4.6 / 2.0 | 3.8 / 1.2 |
*Tammeka shown at home, Kuressaare shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tammeka — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Kuressaare — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tammeka (home) | Kuressaare (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-4 in 10 (1.2 / 1.1 goals per game) | 3-1-8 in 12 (1.1 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 63% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Tammeka or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Kuressaare or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Tammeka clean sheet | 27% |
| Kuressaare clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tammeka is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Tammeka are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tammeka vs Kuressaare — FAQ
Who will win Tammeka vs Kuressaare?
Our statistical model makes Tammeka the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Tammeka 42%, draw 26%, Kuressaare 33%.
Will both teams score in Tammeka vs Kuressaare?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tammeka vs Kuressaare?
Expected goals are 1.56 for Tammeka and 1.32 for Kuressaare — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tammeka vs Kuressaare?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Tammeka or draw is 68%.