Tammeka vs Paide Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Tammeka vs Paide
Model pick: Paide (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 2.11
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tammeka | Paide |
|---|
| League position | #5 (38 pts) | #4 (42 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 58% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Tammeka shown at home, Paide shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tammeka — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Paide — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tammeka (home) | Paide (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-1-4 in 12 (1.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 5-5-3 in 13 (1.8 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 2.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Tammeka or draw (1X) | 38% |
| Double chance — Paide or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Tammeka clean sheet | 12% |
| Paide clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Paide is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Despite playing away, Paide edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Tammeka vs Paide — FAQ
Who will win Tammeka vs Paide?
Our statistical model makes Paide the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Tammeka 20%, draw 22%, Paide 58%.
Will both teams score in Tammeka vs Paide?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tammeka vs Paide?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Tammeka and 2.11 for Paide — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tammeka vs Paide?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Tammeka or draw is 38%.