Tampa Bay vs Brooklyn Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Tampa Bay vs Brooklyn
Model pick: Tampa Bay (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.13 – 1.36
Total goals: 4.5
Over 2.5: 71%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tampa Bay | Brooklyn |
|---|
| League position | #1 (45 pts) | #12 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 60% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
*Tampa Bay shown at home, Brooklyn shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tampa Bay — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Brooklyn — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tampa Bay (home) | Brooklyn (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-2 in 10 (2.2 / 1.4 goals per game) | 1-3-6 in 10 (1.2 / 2.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 49%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.13 vs 1.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Tampa Bay or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Brooklyn or draw (X2) | 28% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Tampa Bay clean sheet | 26% |
| Brooklyn clean sheet | 4% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tampa Bay is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Tampa Bay are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.5, this shapes as an open game (71% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tampa Bay vs Brooklyn — FAQ
Who will win Tampa Bay vs Brooklyn?
Our statistical model makes Tampa Bay the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Tampa Bay 67%, draw 17%, Brooklyn 16%.
Will both teams score in Tampa Bay vs Brooklyn?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tampa Bay vs Brooklyn?
Expected goals are 3.13 for Tampa Bay and 1.36 for Brooklyn — about 4.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tampa Bay vs Brooklyn?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-1 (8%). Double chance for Tampa Bay or draw is 87%.