Tarancón vs Illescas Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Tarancón vs Illescas
Model pick: Tarancón (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 0.57
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tarancón | Illescas |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 1.0 |
*Tarancón shown at home, Illescas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tarancón — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Illescas — last 5
DLDDL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tarancón (home) | Illescas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 0.57):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Tarancón or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Illescas or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Tarancón clean sheet | 57% |
| Illescas clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tarancón is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Tarancón are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tarancón vs Illescas — FAQ
Who will win Tarancón vs Illescas?
Our statistical model makes Tarancón the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Tarancón 54%, draw 29%, Illescas 17%.
Will both teams score in Tarancón vs Illescas?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Tarancón vs Illescas?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Tarancón and 0.57 for Illescas — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tarancón vs Illescas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Tarancón or draw is 85%.