Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva
Model pick: Torpedo Moskva (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.29 – 1.3
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 33%
Both teams score: 35%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tekstilshtik | Torpedo Moskva |
|---|
| League position | #15 (6 pts) | #4 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 0.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 75% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 0.6 |
*Tekstilshtik shown at home, Torpedo Moskva shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tekstilshtik — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Torpedo Moskva — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tekstilshtik (home) | Torpedo Moskva (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-2 in 4 (0.8 / 1.5 goals per game) | 3-0-1 in 4 (1.8 / 0.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 49%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.29 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (27%) |
| Double chance — Tekstilshtik or draw (1X) | 37% |
| Double chance — Torpedo Moskva or draw (X2) | 92% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| Tekstilshtik clean sheet | 27% |
| Torpedo Moskva clean sheet | 75% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torpedo Moskva is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Despite playing away, Torpedo Moskva edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (67% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva — FAQ
Who will win Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our statistical model makes Torpedo Moskva the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Tekstilshtik 10%, draw 30%, Torpedo Moskva 59%.
Will both teams score in Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva?
The model gives a 35% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva?
Expected goals are 0.29 for Tekstilshtik and 1.3 for Torpedo Moskva — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (27%). Double chance for Tekstilshtik or draw is 37%.