Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva
Model pick: Torpedo Moskva (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.38 – 1.35
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 39%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tekstilshtik | Torpedo Moskva |
|---|
| League position | #15 (6 pts) | #6 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Tekstilshtik shown at home, Torpedo Moskva shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tekstilshtik — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Torpedo Moskva — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tekstilshtik (home) | Torpedo Moskva (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-2 in 4 (0.8 / 1.5 goals per game) | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.7 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 51%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.38 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (24%) |
| Double chance — Tekstilshtik or draw (1X) | 38% |
| Double chance — Torpedo Moskva or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 52% / 48% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Tekstilshtik clean sheet | 26% |
| Torpedo Moskva clean sheet | 68% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torpedo Moskva is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Despite playing away, Torpedo Moskva edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva — FAQ
Who will win Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our statistical model makes Torpedo Moskva the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Tekstilshtik 13%, draw 30%, Torpedo Moskva 58%.
Will both teams score in Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva?
The model gives a 39% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva?
Expected goals are 0.38 for Tekstilshtik and 1.35 for Torpedo Moskva — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tekstilshtik vs Torpedo Moskva?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (24%). Double chance for Tekstilshtik or draw is 38%.