Tenerife vs Almería Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Tenerife vs Almería
Model pick: Almería (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tenerife | Almería |
|---|
| League position | #3 (3 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*Tenerife shown at home, Almería shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tenerife — last 5
WLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 46% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Almería — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tenerife (home) | Almería (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 46% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 48% |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.22 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Tenerife or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Almería or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Tenerife clean sheet | 26% |
| Almería clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Almería is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Almería edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tenerife vs Almería — FAQ
Who will win Tenerife vs Almería?
Our statistical model makes Almería the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Tenerife 32%, draw 28%, Almería 40%.
Will both teams score in Tenerife vs Almería?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tenerife vs Almería?
Expected goals are 1.22 for Tenerife and 1.33 for Almería — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tenerife vs Almería?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Tenerife or draw is 61%.