Teplice vs Jablonec Prediction & Preview
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CZECH LIGA (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Teplice vs Jablonec
Model pick: Jablonec (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.34
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Teplice | Jablonec |
|---|
| League position | #9 (7 pts) | #6 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.7 / 2.7 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
*Teplice shown at home, Jablonec shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Teplice — last 5
WWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Jablonec — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Teplice (home) | Jablonec (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (2.7 / 2.7 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Michal Bilek (7) | Jan Chramosta (6) |
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Teplice or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Jablonec or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Teplice clean sheet | 26% |
| Jablonec clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jablonec is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Jablonec edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Teplice vs Jablonec — FAQ
Who will win Teplice vs Jablonec?
Our statistical model makes Jablonec the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Teplice 33%, draw 28%, Jablonec 40%.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Jablonec?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Teplice vs Jablonec?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Teplice and 1.34 for Jablonec — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Teplice vs Jablonec?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Teplice or draw is 59%.