Thalwil vs St. Gallen II Prediction & Preview
1 Liga Classic (Switzerland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1 LIGA CLASSIC (SWITZERLAND)
Thalwil vs St. Gallen II
Model pick: Thalwil (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.14 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Thalwil | St. Gallen II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Thalwil shown at home, St. Gallen II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Thalwil — last 5
WLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Gallen II — last 5
WWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Thalwil (home) | St. Gallen II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
1 Liga Classic (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 70%
BTTS: 72%
Use these 1 Liga Classic (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.14 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Thalwil or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — St. Gallen II or draw (X2) | 28% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Thalwil clean sheet | 52% |
| St. Gallen II clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Thalwil is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Thalwil are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Thalwil vs St. Gallen II — FAQ
Who will win Thalwil vs St. Gallen II?
Our statistical model makes Thalwil the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Thalwil 67%, draw 21%, St. Gallen II 12%.
Will both teams score in Thalwil vs St. Gallen II?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Thalwil vs St. Gallen II?
Expected goals are 2.14 for Thalwil and 0.65 for St. Gallen II — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Thalwil vs St. Gallen II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Thalwil or draw is 90%.