Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik
Model pick: Breidablik (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 2.18
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 65%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Thor Akureyri | Breidablik |
|---|
| League position | n/a | #30 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.3 / 2.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.5 / 2.5 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Thor Akureyri shown at home, Breidablik shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Thor Akureyri — last 5
DLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Breidablik — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Thor Akureyri (home) | Breidablik (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.3 / 2.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 56% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.21
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 2.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — Thor Akureyri or draw (1X) | 43% |
| Double chance — Breidablik or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Thor Akureyri clean sheet | 11% |
| Breidablik clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Breidablik is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Despite playing away, Breidablik edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik — FAQ
Who will win Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik?
Our statistical model makes Breidablik the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Thor Akureyri 24%, draw 22%, Breidablik 54%.
Will both teams score in Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik?
The model gives a 65% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Thor Akureyri and 2.18 for Breidablik — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Thor Akureyri vs Breidablik?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for Thor Akureyri or draw is 43%.