Thor Akureyri vs Keflavík Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Thor Akureyri vs Keflavík
Model pick: Keflavík (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.79 – 1.4
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 66%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Thor Akureyri | Keflavík |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*Thor Akureyri shown at home, Keflavík shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Thor Akureyri — last 5
DLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Keflavík — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Thor Akureyri (home) | Keflavík (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 62% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.21
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.79 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Thor Akureyri or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Keflavík or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Thor Akureyri clean sheet | 25% |
| Keflavík clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Keflavík is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Keflavík edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Thor Akureyri vs Keflavík — FAQ
Who will win Thor Akureyri vs Keflavík?
Our statistical model makes Keflavík the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Thor Akureyri 35%, draw 23%, Keflavík 41%.
Will both teams score in Thor Akureyri vs Keflavík?
The model gives a 66% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Thor Akureyri vs Keflavík?
Expected goals are 1.79 for Thor Akureyri and 1.4 for Keflavík — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Thor Akureyri vs Keflavík?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Thor Akureyri or draw is 70%.