Thun vs Lausanne Sport Prediction & Preview
Super League (Switzerland) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Thun vs Lausanne Sport
Model pick: Thun (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.21 – 1.18
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Thun | Lausanne Sport |
|---|
| League position | #9 (3 pts) | #9 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 6.0 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 3.2 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Thun shown at home, Lausanne Sport shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Thun — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Lausanne Sport — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Thun (home) | Lausanne Sport (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 6.0 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (0.3 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Christopher Ibayi (10) | Omar Janneh (8) |
Super League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Super League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.21 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Thun or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Lausanne Sport or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 44% / 56% |
| Thun clean sheet | 31% |
| Lausanne Sport clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Thun is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Thun are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Thun vs Lausanne Sport — FAQ
Who will win Thun vs Lausanne Sport?
Our statistical model makes Thun the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Thun 57%, draw 22%, Lausanne Sport 21%.
Will both teams score in Thun vs Lausanne Sport?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Thun vs Lausanne Sport?
Expected goals are 2.21 for Thun and 1.18 for Lausanne Sport — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Thun vs Lausanne Sport?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Thun or draw is 81%.