Thun vs Young Boys Prediction & Preview
Super League (Switzerland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Thun vs Young Boys
Model pick: Thun (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.05 – 1.66
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 66%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Thun | Young Boys |
|---|
| League position | #11 (0 pts) | #25 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.4 | 3.2 / 1.0 |
*Thun shown at home, Young Boys shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Thun — last 5
WDLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Young Boys — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Thun (home) | Young Boys (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-0-3 in 4 (1.2 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Christopher Ibayi (10) | – |
Super League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.05
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Super League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.05 vs 1.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Thun or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Young Boys or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 51% / 49% |
| Thun clean sheet | 19% |
| Young Boys clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Thun is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Thun are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Thun vs Young Boys — FAQ
Who will win Thun vs Young Boys?
Our statistical model makes Thun the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Thun 42%, draw 24%, Young Boys 34%.
Will both teams score in Thun vs Young Boys?
The model gives a 66% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Thun vs Young Boys?
Expected goals are 2.05 for Thun and 1.66 for Young Boys — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Thun vs Young Boys?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Thun or draw is 68%.