Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan
Model pick: Beijing Guoan (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.58
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tianjin Teda | Beijing Guoan |
|---|
| League position | #14 (17 pts) | #6 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.8 | 2.2 / 1.0 |
*Tianjin Teda shown at home, Beijing Guoan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tianjin Teda — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Beijing Guoan — last 5
DWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tianjin Teda (home) | Beijing Guoan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-4 in 10 (1.5 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-4-2 in 9 (1.6 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Alberto Quiles (7) | – |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Tianjin Teda or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Beijing Guoan or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Tianjin Teda clean sheet | 21% |
| Beijing Guoan clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beijing Guoan is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Beijing Guoan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan — FAQ
Who will win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model makes Beijing Guoan the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Tianjin Teda 29%, draw 26%, Beijing Guoan 45%.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Tianjin Teda and 1.58 for Beijing Guoan — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Tianjin Teda or draw is 56%.