Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun
Model pick: Tianjin Teda (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 1.45
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tianjin Teda | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|
| League position | #15 (11 pts) | #4 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 22% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 2.6 |
*Tianjin Teda shown at home, Yunnan Yukun shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tianjin Teda — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Yunnan Yukun — last 5
WLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tianjin Teda (home) | Yunnan Yukun (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-4 in 9 (1.3 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-2-5 in 10 (1.8 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 62% |
| Top scorer | Alberto Quiles (7) | Oscar Taty Maritu (13) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 1.45):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Tianjin Teda or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Yunnan Yukun or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Tianjin Teda clean sheet | 23% |
| Yunnan Yukun clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tianjin Teda is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Tianjin Teda are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun — FAQ
Who will win Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model makes Tianjin Teda the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Tianjin Teda 40%, draw 26%, Yunnan Yukun 34%.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Tianjin Teda and 1.45 for Yunnan Yukun — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Tianjin Teda or draw is 66%.