Toluca vs Juárez Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Toluca vs Juárez
Model pick: Toluca (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.59 – 0.92
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Toluca | Juárez |
|---|
| League position | #3 (10 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.5 | 0.5 / 3.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 2.6 |
*Toluca shown at home, Juárez shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Toluca — last 5
WLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Juárez — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Toluca (home) | Juárez (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 3.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Paulinho (8) | Oscar Estupinan (15) |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.59 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Toluca or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Juárez or draw (X2) | 27% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Toluca clean sheet | 40% |
| Juárez clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Toluca is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Toluca are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Toluca vs Juárez — FAQ
Who will win Toluca vs Juárez?
Our statistical model makes Toluca the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Toluca 72%, draw 17%, Juárez 11%.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Juárez?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Toluca vs Juárez?
Expected goals are 2.59 for Toluca and 0.92 for Juárez — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Toluca vs Juárez?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Toluca or draw is 89%.