Tomares vs Cádiz II Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Tomares vs Cádiz II
Model pick: Tomares (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tomares | Cádiz II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Tomares shown at home, Cádiz II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tomares — last 5
LLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Cádiz II — last 5
DWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tomares (home) | Cádiz II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 37% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Tomares or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Cádiz II or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Tomares clean sheet | 35% |
| Cádiz II clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tomares is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Tomares are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tomares vs Cádiz II — FAQ
Who will win Tomares vs Cádiz II?
Our statistical model makes Tomares the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Tomares 40%, draw 29%, Cádiz II 31%.
Will both teams score in Tomares vs Cádiz II?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tomares vs Cádiz II?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Tomares and 1.06 for Cádiz II — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tomares vs Cádiz II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Tomares or draw is 69%.