Tona vs Mollerussa Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Tona vs Mollerussa
Model pick: Tona (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.59 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tona | Mollerussa |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Tona shown at home, Mollerussa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tona — last 5
DDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Mollerussa — last 5
DDDLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tona (home) | Mollerussa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 49% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.59 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Tona or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Mollerussa or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Tona clean sheet | 39% |
| Mollerussa clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tona is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Tona are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tona vs Mollerussa — FAQ
Who will win Tona vs Mollerussa?
Our statistical model makes Tona the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Tona 49%, draw 26%, Mollerussa 24%.
Will both teams score in Tona vs Mollerussa?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tona vs Mollerussa?
Expected goals are 1.59 for Tona and 0.95 for Mollerussa — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tona vs Mollerussa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Tona or draw is 77%.