TOP Oss vs NAC Breda Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
TOP Oss vs NAC Breda
Model pick: NAC Breda (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.61
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| TOP Oss | NAC Breda |
|---|
| League position | #10 (0 pts) | #17 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 3.0 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*TOP Oss shown at home, NAC Breda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
TOP Oss — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
NAC Breda — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | TOP Oss (home) | NAC Breda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 59% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — TOP Oss or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — NAC Breda or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| TOP Oss clean sheet | 20% |
| NAC Breda clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
NAC Breda is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, NAC Breda edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ TOP Oss vs NAC Breda — FAQ
Who will win TOP Oss vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model makes NAC Breda the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: TOP Oss 28%, draw 26%, NAC Breda 46%.
Will both teams score in TOP Oss vs NAC Breda?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in TOP Oss vs NAC Breda?
Expected goals are 1.14 for TOP Oss and 1.61 for NAC Breda — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in TOP Oss vs NAC Breda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for TOP Oss or draw is 52%.