TOP Oss vs Utrecht II Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
TOP Oss vs Utrecht II
Model pick: TOP Oss (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| TOP Oss | Utrecht II |
|---|
| League position | #10 (0 pts) | #20 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 3.6 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*TOP Oss shown at home, Utrecht II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
TOP Oss — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Utrecht II — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 9% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | TOP Oss (home) | Utrecht II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 9% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 65% |
| Top scorer | – | Rafik El Arguioui (11) |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — TOP Oss or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Utrecht II or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| TOP Oss clean sheet | 33% |
| Utrecht II clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
TOP Oss is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. TOP Oss are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ TOP Oss vs Utrecht II — FAQ
Who will win TOP Oss vs Utrecht II?
Our statistical model makes TOP Oss the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: TOP Oss 44%, draw 27%, Utrecht II 29%.
Will both teams score in TOP Oss vs Utrecht II?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in TOP Oss vs Utrecht II?
Expected goals are 1.49 for TOP Oss and 1.1 for Utrecht II — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in TOP Oss vs Utrecht II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for TOP Oss or draw is 72%.