Toronto vs Nashville SC Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Toronto vs Nashville SC
Model pick: Nashville SC (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.06 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Toronto | Nashville SC |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #1 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 2.0 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 22% | 57% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 1.0 |
*Toronto shown at home, Nashville SC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Toronto — last 5
LWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Nashville SC — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Toronto (home) | Nashville SC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-5-2 in 9 (1.9 / 2.0 goals per game) | 4-2-1 in 7 (1.1 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Petar Musa (16) | – |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.06 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Toronto or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Nashville SC or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Toronto clean sheet | 27% |
| Nashville SC clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nashville SC is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Nashville SC edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Toronto vs Nashville SC — FAQ
Who will win Toronto vs Nashville SC?
Our statistical model makes Nashville SC the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Toronto 32%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 42%.
Will both teams score in Toronto vs Nashville SC?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Toronto vs Nashville SC?
Expected goals are 1.06 for Toronto and 1.32 for Nashville SC — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Toronto vs Nashville SC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Toronto or draw is 57%.