Toronto vs New York City Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Toronto vs New York City
Model pick: New York City (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.1 – 1.35
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Toronto | New York City |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #8 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 2.0 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 22% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Toronto shown at home, New York City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Toronto — last 5
DLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
New York City — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Toronto (home) | New York City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-5-2 in 9 (1.9 / 2.0 goals per game) | 2-2-3 in 7 (0.9 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Petar Musa (16) | Nicolas Mercau (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.1 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Toronto or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — New York City or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Toronto clean sheet | 26% |
| New York City clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
New York City is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, New York City edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Toronto vs New York City — FAQ
Who will win Toronto vs New York City?
Our statistical model makes New York City the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Toronto 36%, draw 27%, New York City 38%.
Will both teams score in Toronto vs New York City?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Toronto vs New York City?
Expected goals are 1.1 for Toronto and 1.35 for New York City — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Toronto vs New York City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Toronto or draw is 58%.