Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Model pick: Torpedo Kutaisi (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Torpedo Kutaisi | Dinamo Tbilisi |
|---|
| League position | #6 (31 pts) | #2 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.4 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
*Torpedo Kutaisi shown at home, Dinamo Tbilisi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Torpedo Kutaisi — last 5
LWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Dinamo Tbilisi — last 5
LLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Torpedo Kutaisi (home) | Dinamo Tbilisi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.8 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Torpedo Kutaisi or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Dinamo Tbilisi or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Torpedo Kutaisi clean sheet | 28% |
| Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torpedo Kutaisi is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Torpedo Kutaisi are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi — FAQ
Who will win Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Our statistical model makes Torpedo Kutaisi the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Torpedo Kutaisi 38%, draw 27%, Dinamo Tbilisi 34%.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.26 for Dinamo Tbilisi — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Torpedo Kutaisi or draw is 65%.