Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Model pick: Torpedo Kutaisi (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.23
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Torpedo Kutaisi | Dinamo Tbilisi |
|---|
| League position | #6 (31 pts) | #3 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.2 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
*Torpedo Kutaisi shown at home, Dinamo Tbilisi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Torpedo Kutaisi — last 5
WLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Dinamo Tbilisi — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Torpedo Kutaisi (home) | Dinamo Tbilisi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.9 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-4-1 in 10 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 49% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Torpedo Kutaisi or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Dinamo Tbilisi or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Torpedo Kutaisi clean sheet | 29% |
| Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torpedo Kutaisi is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Torpedo Kutaisi are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi — FAQ
Who will win Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Our statistical model makes Torpedo Kutaisi the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Torpedo Kutaisi 39%, draw 27%, Dinamo Tbilisi 34%.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.23 for Dinamo Tbilisi — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Torpedo Kutaisi or draw is 66%.