Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo
Model pick: Torpedo Kutaisi (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.3
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Torpedo Kutaisi | Saburtalo |
|---|
| League position | #6 (27 pts) | #3 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 56% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Torpedo Kutaisi shown at home, Saburtalo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Torpedo Kutaisi — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Saburtalo — last 5
DLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Torpedo Kutaisi (home) | Saburtalo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | 5-0-4 in 9 (1.7 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Torpedo Kutaisi or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Saburtalo or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Torpedo Kutaisi clean sheet | 27% |
| Saburtalo clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torpedo Kutaisi is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Torpedo Kutaisi are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo — FAQ
Who will win Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo?
Our statistical model makes Torpedo Kutaisi the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Torpedo Kutaisi 37%, draw 27%, Saburtalo 36%.
Will both teams score in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.3 for Saburtalo — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Torpedo Kutaisi vs Saburtalo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Torpedo Kutaisi or draw is 64%.