Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega
Model pick: Torre del Mar (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.41 – 0.58
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Torre del Mar | Churriana de la Vega |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Torre del Mar shown at home, Churriana de la Vega shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Torre del Mar — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Churriana de la Vega — last 5
LDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Torre del Mar (home) | Churriana de la Vega (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 39% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.41 vs 0.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Torre del Mar or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Churriana de la Vega or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Torre del Mar clean sheet | 56% |
| Churriana de la Vega clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torre del Mar is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Torre del Mar are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega — FAQ
Who will win Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega?
Our statistical model makes Torre del Mar the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Torre del Mar 54%, draw 29%, Churriana de la Vega 18%.
Will both teams score in Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega?
Expected goals are 1.41 for Torre del Mar and 0.58 for Churriana de la Vega — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Torre del Mar or draw is 85%.