Toulouse vs Lille Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (France) · Sep 03, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Toulouse vs Lille
Model pick: Lille (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Toulouse | Lille |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #18 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 1.6 |
*Toulouse shown at home, Lille shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Toulouse — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Lille — last 5
WDDWD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Toulouse (home) | Lille (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-3 in 4 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 46% |
| Top scorer | – | Olivier Giroud (4) |
Ligue 1 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Ligue 1 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Toulouse or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Lille or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 28% |
| Lille clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lille is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Lille edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Toulouse vs Lille — FAQ
Who will win Toulouse vs Lille?
Our statistical model makes Lille the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Toulouse 33%, draw 28%, Lille 39%.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Toulouse vs Lille?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Toulouse and 1.26 for Lille — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Toulouse vs Lille?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Toulouse or draw is 60%.