Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (France) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais
Model pick: Toulouse (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.38
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Toulouse | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|
| League position | #15 (0 pts) | #1 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 2.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 75% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Toulouse shown at home, Olympique Lyonnais shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Toulouse — last 5
DWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Olympique Lyonnais — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Toulouse (home) | Olympique Lyonnais (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 3-0-1 in 4 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 62% |
| Top scorer | – | Corentin Tolisso (4) |
Ligue 1 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Ligue 1 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Toulouse or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Olympique Lyonnais or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 25% |
| Olympique Lyonnais clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Toulouse is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Toulouse are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais — FAQ
Who will win Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Our statistical model makes Toulouse the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Toulouse 37%, draw 27%, Olympique Lyonnais 37%.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Toulouse and 1.38 for Olympique Lyonnais — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Toulouse or draw is 63%.