Toyama vs Imabari Prediction & Preview
J2-League (Japan) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 09:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J2-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Toyama vs Imabari
Model pick: Toyama (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Toyama | Imabari |
|---|
| League position | #1 (38 pts) | #9 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 2.6 |
*Toyama shown at home, Imabari shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Toyama — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 6% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Imabari — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Toyama (home) | Imabari (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-0-3 in 9 (2.2 / 1.3 goals per game) | 2-0-7 in 9 (0.7 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 6% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 52% |
J2-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J2-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Toyama or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Imabari or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Toyama clean sheet | 30% |
| Imabari clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Toyama is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Toyama are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Toyama vs Imabari — FAQ
Who will win Toyama vs Imabari?
Our statistical model makes Toyama the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Toyama 44%, draw 28%, Imabari 29%.
Will both teams score in Toyama vs Imabari?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Toyama vs Imabari?
Expected goals are 1.07 for Toyama and 1.2 for Imabari — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Toyama vs Imabari?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Toyama or draw is 61%.