TPS vs Mariehamn Prediction & Preview
Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VEIKKAUSLIIGA (FINLAND)
TPS vs Mariehamn
Model pick: TPS (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.89 – 1.07
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| TPS | Mariehamn |
|---|
| League position | #8 (22 pts) | #12 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*TPS shown at home, Mariehamn shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
TPS — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Mariehamn — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | TPS (home) | Mariehamn (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-2 in 9 (1.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-7 in 8 (0.5 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% |
Veikkausliiga (Finland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Veikkausliiga (Finland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.89 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — TPS or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Mariehamn or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| TPS clean sheet | 34% |
| Mariehamn clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
TPS is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. TPS are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ TPS vs Mariehamn — FAQ
Who will win TPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model makes TPS the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: TPS 59%, draw 22%, Mariehamn 19%.
Will both teams score in TPS vs Mariehamn?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in TPS vs Mariehamn?
Expected goals are 1.89 for TPS and 1.07 for Mariehamn — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in TPS vs Mariehamn?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for TPS or draw is 79%.