Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir
Model pick: Trabzonspor (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Trabzonspor | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|
| League position | #10 (1 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Trabzonspor shown at home, Istanbul Basaksehir shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Trabzonspor — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Istanbul Basaksehir — last 5
WWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Trabzonspor (home) | Istanbul Basaksehir (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Ernest Muci (1) | – |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.61 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Trabzonspor or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Istanbul Basaksehir or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Trabzonspor clean sheet | 28% |
| Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Trabzonspor is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Trabzonspor are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir — FAQ
Who will win Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
Our statistical model makes Trabzonspor the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Trabzonspor 44%, draw 26%, Istanbul Basaksehir 30%.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
Expected goals are 1.61 for Trabzonspor and 1.27 for Istanbul Basaksehir — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Trabzonspor vs Istanbul Basaksehir?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Trabzonspor or draw is 70%.