Trans vs Flora Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Sep 08, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Trans vs Flora
Model pick: Flora (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.88 – 2.09
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Trans | Flora |
|---|
| League position | #10 (17 pts) | #2 (45 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
*Trans shown at home, Flora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Trans — last 5
WDLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Flora — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 42% of the time; 69% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Trans (home) | Flora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-8 in 13 (1.1 / 1.7 goals per game) | 8-0-4 in 12 (1.8 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 69% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.88 vs 2.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (11%) |
| Double chance — Trans or draw (1X) | 35% |
| Double chance — Flora or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Trans clean sheet | 12% |
| Flora clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flora is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Despite playing away, Flora edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Trans vs Flora — FAQ
Who will win Trans vs Flora?
Our statistical model makes Flora the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Trans 17%, draw 22%, Flora 61%.
Will both teams score in Trans vs Flora?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Trans vs Flora?
Expected goals are 0.88 for Trans and 2.09 for Flora — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Trans vs Flora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (11%). Double chance for Trans or draw is 35%.