Trans vs Nõmme Kalju Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Trans vs Nõmme Kalju
Model pick: Nõmme Kalju (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 1.85
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Trans | Nõmme Kalju |
|---|
| League position | #10 (16 pts) | #3 (38 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 60% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.2 / 1.8 |
*Trans shown at home, Nõmme Kalju shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Trans — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Nõmme Kalju — last 5
DDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 41% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Trans (home) | Nõmme Kalju (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-6 in 10 (1.3 / 1.7 goals per game) | 6-2-2 in 10 (1.4 / 0.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 41% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 1.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Trans or draw (1X) | 44% |
| Double chance — Nõmme Kalju or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Trans clean sheet | 16% |
| Nõmme Kalju clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Nõmme Kalju is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Nõmme Kalju edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Trans vs Nõmme Kalju — FAQ
Who will win Trans vs Nõmme Kalju?
Our statistical model makes Nõmme Kalju the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Trans 23%, draw 24%, Nõmme Kalju 53%.
Will both teams score in Trans vs Nõmme Kalju?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Trans vs Nõmme Kalju?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Trans and 1.85 for Nõmme Kalju — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Trans vs Nõmme Kalju?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Trans or draw is 44%.