TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction & Preview
A Lyga (Lithuania) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A LYGA (LITHUANIA)
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai
Model pick: TransINVEST Vilnius (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| TransINVEST Vilnius | Džiugas Telšiai |
|---|
| League position | #6 (29 pts) | #3 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*TransINVEST Vilnius shown at home, Džiugas Telšiai shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
TransINVEST Vilnius — last 5
LDDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Džiugas Telšiai — last 5
LWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | TransINVEST Vilnius (home) | Džiugas Telšiai (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-4-1 in 8 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 45% |
A Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 47%
Use these A Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — TransINVEST Vilnius or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Džiugas Telšiai or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| TransINVEST Vilnius clean sheet | 37% |
| Džiugas Telšiai clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
TransINVEST Vilnius is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. TransINVEST Vilnius are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai — FAQ
Who will win TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai?
Our statistical model makes TransINVEST Vilnius the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: TransINVEST Vilnius 37%, draw 30%, Džiugas Telšiai 32%.
Will both teams score in TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai?
Expected goals are 1.11 for TransINVEST Vilnius and 1.0 for Džiugas Telšiai — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in TransINVEST Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for TransINVEST Vilnius or draw is 68%.